Analytics
Resolved Aryna Sabalenka on 27 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Aryna Sabalenka at 14.5%. Yes opened at 83% on 26 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 26 Apr 2026 to 27 Apr 2026, the highest close was 85.5% on 27 Apr 2026 and the lowest 83% on 26 Apr 2026. $1.52M traded over the market's life.
179 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 28, 3:46 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 26 Apr 2026 – 27 Apr 2026, chart shows 78%–90%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Apr 2026 | 83.0% |
| 27 Apr 2026 | 85.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| ferrariChampions2026 | Naomi Osaka | 58.01K |
| benwyatt | Naomi Osaka | 50K |
| 123abc | Naomi Osaka | 10.08K |
| ThreeLions | Naomi Osaka | 9.77K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market refers to the tennis match between Aryna Sabalenka and Naomi Osaka in the Madrid Open, originally scheduled for April 27, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Aryna Sabalenka' if Aryna Sabalenka advances against Naomi Osaka. This market will resolve to 'Naomi Osaka' if Naomi Osaka advances against Aryna Sabalenka. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/wta-sabalen-osaka-2026-04-27
| Keen Falcon D40C | Naomi Osaka | 6.92K |
| Royal Voyager F150 | Naomi Osaka | 4.85K |
| Visible-Brain | Naomi Osaka | 4.5K |
| not4fun | Naomi Osaka | 4K |
| lebronjames23 | Naomi Osaka | 3.96K |
| Acceptable-Fishbone | Naomi Osaka | 3.95K |
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