Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 8% on 28 Jan 2025. Before it settled, the high was 9.8% on 7 Jun 2025 and the low 0.1% on 30 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 5 points down, to 3.5% on 27 May 2025. $134.44K traded over the market's life.
68 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:31 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 340 points, 28 Jan 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Jan 2025 | 8.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| MyLige | Yes | 1.11K |
| acal | Yes | 500 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 439 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed modelI ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-this-year
| SandraHardy4985 | Yes | 328 |
| AlexTiger | Yes | 222.22 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 190 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 165 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 150 |
| TimothyKennedy1931 | Yes | 142 |
| power1337 | Yes | 133.82 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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