Analytics
Resolved No on 23 Oct 2026.
The last price read before settlement had No at 50.6%. Yes was at 49.4% at 23 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC, the earliest read in hand. Before it settled, across 3 price reads from 23 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC to 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC, the highest read was 49.4% on 23 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC and the lowest 3.5% on 23 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC. $119.47 traded over the market's life.
4 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 24, 1:28 AM UTC
6-hour closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 23 Oct, 06:00 UTC – 23 Oct, 18:00 UTC
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Oct, 06:00 UTC | 49.4% |
| 23 Oct, 18:00 UTC | 49.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| .Menthe | Yes | 50 |
| bjprolo | Yes | 20 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 20 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 9.87 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of the week of October 19 2026, any 1-minute candle for Gold (XAUUSD) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Gold (XAUUSD) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the relevant CME COMEX futures contract for the underlying metal—COMEX Gold Futures (GC)—may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-xauusd-hit-week-of-october-19-2026
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