Analytics
Resolved Yes on 18 Feb 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 33.5%. Yes opened at 23% on 28 Jan 2025. Before it settled, across the 22 daily closes on record from 28 Jan 2025 to 18 Feb 2025, the highest close was 53% on 17 Feb 2025 and the lowest 20.5% on 29 Jan 2025. Its largest one-day move was 22 points up, to 53% on 17 Feb 2025. $211.1K traded over the market's life.
2 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 12, 4:01 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 22 points, 28 Jan 2025 – 18 Feb 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Jan 2025 | 23.0% |
| 18 Feb 2025 | 33.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| cyrus-zhou | No | 433.81 |
| otencrtu | No | 0.01 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed modelI ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-this-year
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