Analytics
Resolved No on 14 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 86%. Yes opened at 49% on 11 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 4 daily closes on record from 11 Jul 2026 to 14 Jul 2026, the highest close was 49% on 11 Jul 2026 and the lowest 14% on 14 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 32 points down, to 17.5% on 12 Jul 2026. $865.91 traded over the market's life.
4 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 15, 2:13 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 11 Jul 2026 – 14 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Jul 2026 | 49.0% |
| 14 Jul 2026 | 14.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| ilovegambling | Yes | 357.14 |
| MambaKobe | Yes | 50 |
| justmeandme | Yes | 21 |
| Envious-Summary | Yes | 10 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player clinches a spot in the Finals of the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby per the rules of the competition. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed player to clinch a spot in the Finals of the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby (e.g. the player is eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby is cancelled, postponed after July 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the players that qualified for the Finals have not been officially confirmed by the MLB within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/mlb-home-run-derby-2026-player-to-advance-to-finals-20260709212115269
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