Analytics
Resolved No on 10 Jan 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 34% on 3 Dec 2024. Before it settled, across the 39 daily closes on record from 3 Dec 2024 to 10 Jan 2025, the highest close was 35.5% on 6 Dec 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 7 Jan 2025. Its largest one-day move was 20 points down, to 8.5% on 8 Dec 2024. $3.61M traded over the market's life.
74 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 11, 9:58 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 39 points, 3 Dec 2024 – 10 Jan 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Dec 2024 | 34.0% |
| 10 Jan 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| pvlion | Yes | 100.16K |
| Simple-Meet | Yes | 2.98K |
| Maxikin9 | Yes | 2.5K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This is a market on how much 'Wicked' (2024) will gross domestically by January 9. The “Box Office” tab on https://the-numbers.com/movie/Wicked-(2024)#tab=box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the total domestic gross for relevant dates are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This is a market on how much 'Wicked' will gross domestically by January 9, 2025. The “Box Office” tab found at the https://the-numbers.com/movie/Wicked-(2024)#tab=box-office link will be used to resolve this market, specifically the "Total Gross" column on the "Daily Box Office Performance" chart. This market will resolve to "Yes" if 'Wicked' grosses more than $500,000,000 domestically by January 9, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If any finalized numbers in the "Total Gross" column (for dates January 9, 2025 and before) show a value of more than $500 million, this market will resolve immediately to "Yes." This market may only resolve to "No" once the January 9, 2025 "Total Gross" number is finalized, or if the January 9, 2025 date does not become available by January 16, the nearest previous date with available data.
Resolution source: https://the-numbers.com/movie/Wicked-(2024)#tab=box-office
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-wicked-gross-more-than-500-million-domestically-by-january-9
| Yes |
| 2.38K |
| gregshepherd | Yes | 1.78K |
| healthiswealth | Yes | 1.24K |
| ryansgoodman | Yes | 1.13K |
| tradingpro | Yes | 1K |
| TradeTactician99 | No | 900 |
| Jasonwtf | Yes | 855.56 |
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