Will 'Wicked' gross between $115-125m opening weekend?

Resolved

No, settled Nov 25, 2024 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$248.6K

Resolved

Settled

Nov 25, 2024 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 25 Nov 2024.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 87.1%. Yes opened at 14.5% on 29 Oct 2024. Before it settled, across the 28 daily closes on record from 29 Oct 2024 to 25 Nov 2024, the highest close was 41.3% on 24 Nov 2024 and the lowest 7.4% on 7 Nov 2024. Its largest one-day move was 28 points down, to 12.8% on 25 Nov 2024. $248.62K traded over the market's life.

87 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Nov 26, 11:20 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 28 points, 29 Oct 2024 – 25 Nov 2024

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
29 Oct 2024	14.5%
25 Nov 2024	12.8%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	131.05K
Flowery-Rubric	Yes	1.32K
BigDaddyMoneyMaker	Yes	593.95
Lunar Lynx BBA9	Yes	223.28

10 of 87 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This is a market on how much 'Wicked' (2024) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The “Box Office” tab on https://the-numbers.com/movie/Wicked-(2024)#tab=box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (November 22 - 24) are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if 'Wicked' (2024) grosses between $115,000,000 (inclusive) and $125,000,000 (exclusive) on its 3-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is no final data available by December 2, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.