Analytics
Resolved No on 21 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 24% on 22 Apr 2026. Before it settled, the high was 45% on 4 May 2026 and the low 0.1% on 17 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 39 points up, to 45% on 4 May 2026. $1.34K traded over the market's life.
37 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:04 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 121 points, 22 Apr 2026 – 21 Aug 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 Apr 2026 | 24.0% |
| 21 Aug 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 8.27K |
| Anon321321 | Yes | 318 |
| korda77 | Yes | 215.65 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ca-14-special-election-winner
| Yes |
| 189.62 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 150 |
| e46m3 | Yes | 144.27 |
| cry.eth2 | Yes | 139 |
| godblessme2026 | Yes | 135.55 |
| niglette | Yes | 126.93 |
| plainfolder | Yes | 120 |
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