Analytics
Resolved No on 8 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 49.5% on 13 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 123 daily closes on record from 13 Dec 2025 to 8 May 2026 (24 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 49.5% on 13 Dec 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 23 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 44 points down, to 5.5% on 14 Dec 2025. $23.22K traded over the market's life.
39 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 8, 8:47 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 123 points, 13 Dec 2025 – 8 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Dec 2025 | 49.5% |
| 8 May 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 28.13K |
| doxli | Yes | 1.6K |
| cry.eth2 | Yes | 1.3K |
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election. If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/wales-parliamentary-election-winner
| Yes |
| 1.18K |
| HappyAlpha | Yes | 999.99 |
| itsjustcheddar | Yes | 400 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 299.99 |
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 250.53 |
| paspor | Yes | 237.01 |
| tamalaile | Yes | 219.97 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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