Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 17% on 7 Jan 2025. Before it settled, across the 361 daily closes on record from 7 Jan 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 63% on 25 Mar 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 27 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 41 points up, to 49.9% on 2 Dec 2025. $12.75K traded over the market's life.
43 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 4:29 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 361 points, 7 Jan 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Jan 2025 | 17.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 520 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 254.99 |
| power1337 | Yes | 158.77 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Waymo's monthly rides in San Francisco exceeds or is equal to Uber's monthly rides for any month in 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Monthly rides is defined as total gross bookings - i.e. the number of pickups and drop offs inside SF operating boundary. The resolution source will be reputable sources including YipitData, and company reports, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-waymo-surpass-uber-sf-market-share-in-2025
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 156.01 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 156 |
| pennycc | No | 129.49 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 77 |
| Tonymontana96 | Yes | 60 |
| DerKunde | Yes | 53.68 |
| Rlso | Yes | 48.03 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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