Analytics
Resolved No on 12 Nov 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 50% on 10 Jan 2024. Before it settled, across the 308 daily closes on record from 10 Jan 2024 to 12 Nov 2024, the highest close was 50% on 10 Jan 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 25 Jan 2024. Its largest one-day move was 49 points down, to 1% on 11 Jan 2024. $5.7M traded over the market's life.
421 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 13, 9:37 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 308 points, 10 Jan 2024 – 12 Nov 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Jan 2024 | 50.0% |
| 12 Nov 2024 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 27.92M |
| qrpenc | Yes | 4.19M |
| Emerald Beacon F675 | Yes | 2.02M |
This is a market on predicting the winner of the popular vote in the 2024 presidential election.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024
| therealbatman | Yes | 1.4M |
| ABM | Yes | 428K |
| XAE12Archangel | Yes | 128.88K |
| SuperApe | Yes | 61.16K |
| palisade | Yes | 57.17K |
| kamala-is-brat | Yes | 28.81K |
| aldynspeedruns | Yes | 20.88K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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