Analytics
“Will Vinicius Junior join Chelsea?” is a sports prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “Where will Vinicius Junior transfer?”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
The venue reports this market as closed. Its scheduled close is Sep 2, 2026 UTC. No resolved outcome is inferred from a closed or suspended state.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 52 hourly price points from Jun 16, 2026 UTC to Aug 7, 2026 UTC (Yes between 0.1% and 47.5%); 46 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 90.1% of the loaded shares; 499 recent public fills from 61 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This resolved market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
This market will resolve to the next team Vinicius Junior officially joins by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If Vinicius Junior does not officially join a new team by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Real Madrid". If Vinicius Junior joins a team that is not listed, this market will resolve to "Other". If Vinicius Junior is released, retires, or is not under contract with any professional team by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". An official transfer announcement prior to the market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from Real Madrid and/or the acquiring team. A consensus of credible media reporting may also be used to resolve the market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/where-will-vinicius-junior-transfer-20260612232836376
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Hourly closes of the Yes price. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 97.16K |
| balthazar | Yes | 14.36K |
| Jumpy-Prayer | Yes | 6K |
| mildwindow27 | Yes | 3.93K |
| mustbethewater | Yes | 3.3K |
| betterfasterstronger | Yes | 2.41K |
| Kent777 | Yes | 2.11K |
| uantauzen | Yes | 1.46K |
| godblessme2026 | Yes | 1.35K |
| Rami.666 | Yes | 1.22K |