Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 5.5% on 6 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 58 daily closes on record from 6 Nov 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 5.5% on 6 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 29 Dec 2025. $48.56K traded over the market's life.
33 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 24, 9:53 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 58 points, 6 Nov 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2025 | 5.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| zn888 | Yes | 1.21K |
| acal | Yes | 1K |
| 8Eotx5qJmuUVd | Yes | 888.3 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Variational officially launches a governance token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Variational (https://x.com/variational_io), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-variational-launch-a-token-in-2025
| Discrete-Mixer | Yes | 809.95 |
| libapi | Yes | 683.88 |
| tailevent | Yes | 600 |
| josuede | Yes | 411.41 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 406 |
| cobble | Yes | 400 |
| Lesivv | Yes | 330.01 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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