Analytics
Resolved No on 28 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 95.3%. Yes opened at 30.5% on 27 May 2026. Before it settled, the high was 30.5% on 27 May 2026 and the low 4.7% on 28 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 26 points down, to 4.7% on 28 May 2026. $323.74 traded over the market's life.
7 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 29, 6:36 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 2 points · 27 May 2026 – 28 May 2026 · axis zoomed to 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 May 2026 | 30.5% |
| 28 May 2026 | 4.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Wicked-Impala | Yes | 102 |
| Edgarmendoza1981 | Yes | 12.75 |
| Grandiose-Layer | Yes | 10 |
| qcp14 | Yes | 10 |
| Eaaglee | Yes | 7 |
| bjprolo | Yes | 5 |
| rocketcrypto | Yes | 5 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
JD Vance is scheduled to deliver a Commencement Address at the U.S. Air Force Academy on May 28, 2026 (https://x.com/WHPressPool/status/2056836241228746829?s=20). This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance says the listed term during events at the Air Force Academy scheduled for May 28, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If clips of old interviews or prerecorded videos are aired where Vance is speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution. Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g., joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however, "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). This market is explicitly about JD Vance's visit to the Air Force Academy scheduled for May 28, 2026. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by May 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.
Resolution source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FTh-FX25Eps
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-jd-vance-say-during-air-force-academy-address
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