Analytics
Resolved Yes on 24 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.9%. Yes opened at 52% on 7 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 18 daily closes on record from 7 Jan 2026 to 24 Jan 2026, the highest close was 99.9% on 24 Jan 2026 and the lowest 35.5% on 9 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 57 points up, to 92% on 10 Jan 2026. $11.18K traded over the market's life.
19 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 25, 8:21 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 18 points, 7 Jan 2026 – 24 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Jan 2026 | 52.0% |
| 24 Jan 2026 | 99.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| LukeGamma | No | 1.7K |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | No | 205 |
| CEO4FT | No | 200 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | No | 170 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Valve launches Premier season 4 by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Once launched, this market will remain open for 48 hours. Temporary launches (e.g., for testing) that are reversed within 48 hours will not count. For the purpose of this market, “Valve” refers to Valve Corporation, the developer and publisher of the Counter-Strike series. For the purpose of this market, “Premier season 4” refers to the fourth season of the Premier competitive matchmaking mode in Counter-Strike 2 (CS2), which consists of seasonal leaderboards, rank resets, and associated rewards eligible in Premier mode matchmaking. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Valve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-valve-launch-premier-season-4-by-january-31
| Bold Scout BD7E | No | 116 |
| Female-Bonnet | No | 113.75 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | No | 109 |
| Droopy-Experimentation | No | 87.99 |
| AsuraSmellsLikeASS | No | 50 |
| tiancs | No | 50 |
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