Analytics
Resolved Yes on 10 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 98.7%. Yes opened at 52.5% on 1 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 10 daily closes on record from 1 Mar 2026 to 10 Mar 2026, the highest close was 98.7% on 10 Mar 2026 and the lowest 52.5% on 1 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 19 points up, to 71.5% on 2 Mar 2026.
350 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 11, 12:53 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 10 points, 1 Mar 2026 – 10 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Mar 2026 | 52.5% |
| 10 Mar 2026 | 98.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Klmhut | No | 66.69K |
| rfxbnsr | No | 12.51K |
| jumper1000 | No | 11.4K |
| faydabunny | No | 8.45K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US or Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US or Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/usisrael-strikes-iran-on
| Even-Jackfruit | No | 7.26K |
| JTizzlefoshizzle | No | 6.7K |
| Christj | No | 6.25K |
| opx146f | No | 5.5K |
| Charming-Insect | No | 5.26K |
| Other-Quest | No | 5.25K |
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