Analytics
Resolved No on 27 Jun 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 97.8%. Yes opened at 9.5% on 3 Jun 2026. Before it settled, across the 25 daily closes on record from 3 Jun 2026 to 27 Jun 2026, the highest close was 10.5% on 4 Jun 2026 and the lowest 2.1% on 26 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 5.1 points down, to 2.4% on 23 Jun 2026. $21.53K traded over the market's life.
21 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jun 28, 2:14 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 25 points, 3 Jun 2026 – 27 Jun 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Jun 2026 | 9.5% |
| 27 Jun 2026 | 2.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| overlooked | Yes | 2.2K |
| Poutinesteam | Yes | 799.99 |
| -Guapo-- | Yes | 720 |
| Insidious-Dredger | Yes | 555.56 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 FIFA World Cup Semifinals. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to advance to the 2026 FIFA World Cup Semifinals (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after July 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup Semifinals matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/world-cup-nation-to-reach-semifinals
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