Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in October?

economyResolved

No, settled Oct 23, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$10.1K

Resolved

Settled

Oct 23, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 23 Oct 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 77.5%. Yes opened at 23.5% on 1 Oct 2026. Before it settled, across the 22 daily closes on record from 1 Oct 2026 to 23 Oct 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 52.5% on 12 Oct 2026 and the lowest 12.5% on 4 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 20 points up, to 42.5% on 10 Oct 2026. $10.11K traded over the market's life.

21 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 24, 2:01 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 22 points, 1 Oct 2026 – 23 Oct 2026

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	1.28K
fabriksopor	Yes	290
Dimpled-Foal	Yes	182.02

10 of 21 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This is a market about the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) for October 2026, as reported by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for October 2026, as reported in the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release. The resolution source for this market will be the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for October 2026 (https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/), currently scheduled to be released on October 23, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: This market resolves based only on the final results for the specified month; preliminary results will not be considered. Note: University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is reported to one decimal point (e.g., 44.8). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the University of Michigan does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Surveys of Consumers report. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.