Analytics
Yes is at 8.5%, down 2 points from 10.5% when the market opened on 15 Aug 2026.
Across the 73 daily closes on record from 15 Aug 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 11.5% on 18 Aug 2026 and the lowest 8.5% on 3 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 8.5%; a month before, 9.5%.
It is one of 2 markets under “Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?”.
$12.4K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $16.32K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 97 trades, $388.94 bought Yes and $6.22K bought No; the largest was a $1.03K buy of No at 91.0¢.
The largest Yes position is Zumala with 6K shares; the largest No position is Female-Supreme with 1.3K. Ten wallets hold 83.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jul 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 3:44 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 73 points, 15 Aug 2026 – 29 Oct 2026, chart shows 5%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Aug 2026 | 10.5% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 8.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Zumala | Yes | 6K |
| Female-Supreme | No | 1.35K |
| pravii-bereg | No | 1.02K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of Crimea is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-recapture-crimean-territory-by-june-30-2026
| Mwhale |
| No |
| 957.07 |
| Ym777Ym | No | 750 |
| Crimson Scout DF5C | No | 500 |
| DEGENKHAN | No | 445.24 |
| Serpentine-Flipflops | No | 444.44 |
| Pavel85 | No | 444.44 |
| Bromley86 | No | 343.6 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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