Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jun 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 10.5% on 23 Apr 2026. Before it settled, the high was 54.5% on 10 May 2026 and the low 0.3% on 1 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 37 points up, to 54.5% on 10 May 2026. $2.55K traded over the market's life.
16 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jun 2, 5:56 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 40 points, 23 Apr 2026 – 1 Jun 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Apr 2026 | 10.5% |
| 1 Jun 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Oklmntrader | Yes | 129.58 |
| .Menthe | Yes | 50 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 29.21 |
| whoa | Yes | 20 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Maliivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, (47.920810° N, 36.618600° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-re-enter-maliivka-by-march-31
| TerranSupremacy | Yes | 11.34 |
| Grandiose-Layer | Yes | 10 |
| Past-Misrepresentation | Yes | 10 |
| rocketcrypto | Yes | 5 |
| erdfgterd | No | 2.81 |
| fjhgfdhredrh | No | 2.37 |
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