Will Ukraine hold Kursk through Aug 31?

geopoliticsResolved

Yes, settled Sep 1, 2024 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$861.6K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Sep 1, 2024 UTC

Topic roomRussia–Ukraine

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 1 Sep 2024.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 100%. Yes opened at 80.5% on 13 Aug 2024. Before it settled, across the 20 daily closes on record from 13 Aug 2024 to 1 Sep 2024, the highest close was 100% on 1 Sep 2024 and the lowest 78% on 14 Aug 2024. Its largest one-day move was 7 points up, to 85% on 15 Aug 2024. $861.57K traded over the market's life.

104 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Sep 2, 2:17 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 20 points, 13 Aug 2024 – 1 Sep 2024, chart shows 70%–100%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
13 Aug 2024	80.5%
1 Sep 2024	100.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
ghostdesmond	No	33.45K
Amber Ledger B961	No	4.19K
pierceheaven	No	3.8K

10 of 104 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukrainian forces maintain control of any part of the Kursk Oblast of Russia, through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2024. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". If Ukrainian forces at any point no longer control any territory in the Kursk Oblast, this market will immediately resolve to "No". Control is defined as Ukrainian forces being present and actively holding territory in the Kursk Oblast. The primary resolution source for this market will be maps and reports published by the Institute for the Study of War (https://www.arcgis.com/apps/mapviewer/index.html?webmap=9f04944a2fe84edab9da31750c2b15eb), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.