Will UK GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 0% and 0.5%?

Resolved

No, settled Feb 12, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$3.0K

Resolved

Settled

Feb 12, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 12 Feb 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 89.3%. Yes opened at 40.5% on 10 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 66 daily closes on record from 10 Dec 2025 to 12 Feb 2026, the highest close was 47% on 11 Dec 2025 and the lowest 0.5% on 11 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 33 points down, to 11.5% on 13 Dec 2025. $2.98K traded over the market's life.

26 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Feb 13, 4:25 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 66 points, 10 Dec 2025 – 12 Feb 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
10 Dec 2025	40.5%
12 Feb 2026	10.7%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	1.13K
alilili1	Yes	500
Bright Horizon 81D6	Yes	298

10 of 26 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q4 of 2025, scheduled for February 12, 2026, 7:00 AM. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.