Will UK GDP growth in Q1 2026 be at least 1.8%?

Resolved

No, settled May 14, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$3.7K

Resolved

Settled

May 14, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 14 May 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 45.5% on 13 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 70 daily closes on record from 13 Feb 2026 to 14 May 2026 (21 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 45.5% on 13 Feb 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 14 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 28 points down, to 17.5% on 14 Feb 2026. $3.65K traded over the market's life.

21 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of May 15, 6:08 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 70 points, 13 Feb 2026 – 14 May 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
13 Feb 2026	45.5%
14 May 2026	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
yangguang0511	Yes	1.45K
Indigo Signal 2966	No	1.08K
cry.eth2	Yes	95.43

10 of 21 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.