Will two people dissent the March Fed decision?

Resolved

No, settled Mar 18, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Resolved

Settled

Mar 18, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 18 Mar 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 42%. Yes opened at 35.5% on 30 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 35 daily closes on record from 30 Jan 2026 to 18 Mar 2026 (13 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 61.5% on 17 Mar 2026 and the lowest 24% on 1 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 17 points up, to 41% on 2 Feb 2026.

31 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Mar 19, 8:28 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 35 points, 30 Jan 2026 – 18 Mar 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
30 Jan 2026	35.5%
18 Mar 2026	58.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	4.31K
TonyWall2179	Yes	838
TENETENET	Yes	500
Amber Ledger 812B	Yes	499

10 of 31 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for March 17-18, 2026. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on March 18, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET. This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the next Federal Reserve Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for March 17-18, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.