Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 52% and 54%?

Resolved

No, settled Feb 26, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$122.2K

Resolved

Settled

Feb 26, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 26 Feb 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 19% on 22 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 34 daily closes on record from 22 Jan 2026 to 26 Feb 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 25% on 27 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 10 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 7.9 points down, to 0.3% on 9 Feb 2026. $122.24K traded over the market's life.

74 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Feb 26, 3:19 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 34 points, 22 Jan 2026 – 26 Feb 2026, chart shows 0%–30%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
22 Jan 2026	19.0%
26 Feb 2026	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	38.59K
Elhambigzad1	Yes	8.88K
flow-trader-at-optiver	Yes	2.97K

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

Second-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on February 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the second-round turnout percentage, calculated as “Total votantes” divided by “Total inscritos” If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the election aren’t known by May 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).