Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be at least 44%?

Resolved

Yes, settled Jan 19, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$44.6K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Jan 19, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 19 Jan 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 100%. Yes opened at 65% on 4 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 48 daily closes on record from 4 Dec 2025 to 19 Jan 2026, the highest close was 100% on 19 Jan 2026 and the lowest 58% on 11 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 21 points down, to 58% on 11 Dec 2025. $44.58K traded over the market's life.

22 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 20, 4:21 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 48 points, 4 Dec 2025 – 19 Jan 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
4 Dec 2025	65.0%
19 Jan 2026	100.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	8.47K
gopfan2	No	2.68K
dfafsadfaf	No	1.95K

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on January 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the first-round turnout percentage, calculated as “Total votantes” divided by “Total inscritos” If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the election aren’t known by May 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).