Analytics
Resolved Trzaskowski on 2 Jun 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Trzaskowski at 99.3%. The Trzaskowski side opened at 93.5% on 22 May 2025. Before it settled, across the 12 daily closes on record from 22 May 2025 to 2 Jun 2025, the highest close was 99.3% on 2 Jun 2025 and the lowest 93.5% on 22 May 2025. $193.96K traded over the market's life.
16 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jun 3, 4:24 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Trzaskowski price, Polymarket CLOB, 12 points, 22 May 2025 – 2 Jun 2025, chart shows 90%–100%
| Observed | Trzaskowski price |
|---|---|
| 22 May 2025 | 93.5% |
| 2 Jun 2025 | 99.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| BabyYoda12 | Nawrocki | 1.77K |
| mofofofo | Nawrocki | 989.73 |
| RyanKola | Nawrocki | 331.99 |
| Pirnop | Nawrocki | 265.08 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Trzaskowski" if Rafał Trzaskowski receives more total votes than Karol Nawrocki from Polish citizens voting abroad (diaspora) in the second round of the 2025 Polish presidential election. It will resolve to "Nawrocki" if Karol Nawrocki receives more total diaspora votes than Rafał Trzaskowski. If votes cast within Wrocław are exactly equal for each candidate, this market will resolve 50-50. Only votes cast outside Poland (i.e., at polling stations abroad and on Polish-flagged ships) will count for the purposes of this market. The resolution will be based on the official results published by Poland’s National Electoral Commission (Państwowa Komisja Wyborcza, PKW), specifically the results for voters abroad. If the diaspora results are not published or are contested, this market will remain open until the final official totals from abroad are confirmed by a ruling from the Supreme Court and published in the Journal of Laws (Dziennik Ustaw). Official results can be found at: https://wybory.gov.pl/prezydent2025/en/wynik/pow/149900
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-trzaskowski-or-nawrocki-win-the-diaspora-vote
| Raqu | Nawrocki | 243.43 |
| bani00 | Nawrocki | 100 |
| Mpc | Nawrocki | 28.57 |
| Indigo Horizon 4C43 | Nawrocki | 18.92 |
| xxenalianee | Trzaskowski | 1.05 |
| rugger | Trzaskowski | 1.02 |
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