Analytics
Resolved No on 5 Mar 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 77.5%. Yes opened at 29.5% on 4 Mar 2025. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 4 Mar 2025 to 5 Mar 2025, the highest close was 29.5% on 4 Mar 2025 and the lowest 22.5% on 5 Mar 2025. Its largest one-day move was 7 points down, to 22.5% on 5 Mar 2025. $19.48K traded over the market's life.
9 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 6, 4:18 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 4 Mar 2025 – 5 Mar 2025, chart shows 20%–35%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Mar 2025 | 29.5% |
| 5 Mar 2025 | 22.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 3.9K |
| ando2 | Yes | 247.27 |
| alwaysaviktor | Yes | 100 |
| BigFatGG | Yes | 3.85 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
President Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver his first joint address to Congress of his second term on Tuesday, March 4, 2025, at 9 PM ET. This market will resolve according to the length of the speech. If Donald Trump does not give a joint address to Congress by March 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The speech length will be measured from the start of when Trump begins audibly speaking at the podium during his speech until the moment he finishes. The resolution source will be the live video of the event.
Resolution source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z6zaAzNXc50
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-long-will-trumps-state-of-the-union-be
| Tashagion | No | 0.1 |
| smartmoney.no.smart.no.money | Yes | 0.03 |
| bistrogons | No | 0.02 |
| akl-4ibm | No | 0.02 |
| Poly24 | Yes | 0.02 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
