Analytics
Resolved No on 1 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 35.5% on 9 Apr 2026. Before it settled, the high was 35.5% on 9 Apr 2026 and the low 0.3% on 28 Apr 2026. $10.52K traded over the market's life.
19 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 2, 1:24 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 12 points, 9 Apr 2026 – 1 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Apr 2026 | 35.5% |
| 1 May 2026 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Noxious-Real | Yes | 1.85K |
| Tidy-Tinderbox | Yes | 272.53 |
| ma99 | Yes | 100 |
| Legitimate-Extent | Yes | 88.85 |
| Cemoneymaker | Yes | 56.15 |
| cryptofifteenmins | Yes | 55 |
| andramaha | Yes | 51.21 |
| Indigo Tide 215D | Yes | 39 |
| Natural-Dugout | Yes | 37.74 |
| Mojito9 | Yes | 15 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between April 8 and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. If the approval rating for April 30 is not published by May 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-trumps-approval-rating-go-in-april
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