Will Trump's approval rating be less than 41.0 on January 9, 2026?

Resolved

No, settled Jan 10, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$15.2K

Resolved

Settled

Jan 10, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 10 Jan 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 10.5% on 3 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 8 daily closes on record from 3 Jan 2026 to 10 Jan 2026, the highest close was 10.5% on 3 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.5% on 10 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 5.5 points down, to 3.5% on 7 Jan 2026. $15.18K traded over the market's life.

45 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 11, 4:21 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 8 points, 3 Jan 2026 – 10 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–15%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
3 Jan 2026	10.5%
10 Jan 2026	0.5%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	3.77K
Btuce	Yes	576.96
TENETENET	Yes	500
eorge	Yes	422.49

10 of 45 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on January 9, 2026. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.