Will Trump's approval rating be between 48% and 50% on January 31?

Resolved

Yes, settled Jan 31, 2025 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$16.8K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Jan 31, 2025 UTC

Topic roomTrump and the White House

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 31 Jan 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 78%. Yes opened at 15% on 24 Jan 2025. Before it settled, across the 8 daily closes on record from 24 Jan 2025 to 31 Jan 2025, the highest close was 78% on 31 Jan 2025 and the lowest 13.5% on 28 Jan 2025. Its largest one-day move was 44 points up, to 78% on 31 Jan 2025. $16.81K traded over the market's life.

4 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Feb 1, 7:46 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 8 points, 24 Jan 2025 – 31 Jan 2025

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
24 Jan 2025	15.0%
31 Jan 2025	78.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	5.3K
vamnizar	Yes	0.06
eieio	No	0.05
antoshkavlasio	Yes	0.02

4 of 4 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to Donald Trump’s approval rating as reported by RealCelarPolitics (RCP) as of January 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET (noon). The resolution source will be RCP's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating, specifically the approval rating listed in the ‘APPROVE’ column for ‘RCP AVERAGE’. Changes in the methodology by which RCP calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve according to the value as of 12:00 PM ET noon on the listed date. If the RCP Average is unavailable at this time, the last listed value will be used. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.