Will Trump's approval rating be between 41.5 and 41.9 on January 16, 2026?

Resolved

Yes, settled Jan 17, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$24.0K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Jan 17, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 17 Jan 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 96%. Yes opened at 27% on 10 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 8 daily closes on record from 10 Jan 2026 to 17 Jan 2026, the highest close was 96% on 17 Jan 2026 and the lowest 4.7% on 16 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 91 points up, to 96% on 17 Jan 2026. $23.97K traded over the market's life.

29 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 18, 4:21 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 8 points, 10 Jan 2026 – 17 Jan 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
10 Jan 2026	27.0%
17 Jan 2026	96.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
mumu456	No	5K
Indigo Signal 2966	No	3.05K
alilili1	No	500
Emerald Pioneer D14A	No	262

10 of 29 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on January 16, 2026. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.