Analytics
Resolved Yes on 12 Jul 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.6%. Yes opened at 26% on 5 Jul 2025. Before it settled, across the 8 daily closes on record from 5 Jul 2025 to 12 Jul 2025, the highest close was 99.6% on 12 Jul 2025 and the lowest 26% on 5 Jul 2025. Its largest one-day move was 36 points up, to 88.5% on 11 Jul 2025. $15.34K traded over the market's life.
17 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 13, 4:33 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 8 points, 5 Jul 2025 – 12 Jul 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Jul 2025 | 26.0% |
| 12 Jul 2025 | 99.6% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 3.64K |
| perdomonicandro | No | 1K |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | No | 633 |
| coypu | No | 37.5 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on July 11, 2025. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-approval-rating-on-july-11
| MrPali | No | 8.33 |
| Quiet Falcon C107 | No | 6.82 |
| Royal Scout BDB8 | No | 6.82 |
| Azure Harbor FC8A | No | 6.82 |
| Emerald Vector DCB1 | No | 6.25 |
| Keen Summit CFAB | No | 6.12 |
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