Analytics
Resolved No on 9 Aug 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.9%. Yes opened at 49.5% on 2 Aug 2025. Before it settled, across the 8 daily closes on record from 2 Aug 2025 to 9 Aug 2025, the highest close was 49.5% on 2 Aug 2025 and the lowest 1.1% on 9 Aug 2025. Its largest one-day move was 29 points down, to 20.5% on 3 Aug 2025. $19.01K traded over the market's life.
9 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 10, 4:57 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 8 points, 2 Aug 2025 – 9 Aug 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Aug 2025 | 49.5% |
| 9 Aug 2025 | 1.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 3.47K |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 289.99 |
| Oriontronus | Yes | 204 |
| qwertzu | Yes | 96 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on August 8, 2025. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-approval-rating-on-august-8
| murshak | Yes | 21.28 |
| coypu | Yes | 3.7 |
| BUFI.vufi | No | 0.04 |
| kituchina | No | 0.01 |
| Haradwaith | Yes | 0.01 |
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