Analytics
Resolved No on 12 Jul 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 26% on 5 Jul 2025. Before it settled, the high was 40.5% on 9 Jul 2025 and the low 0.5% on 12 Jul 2025. Its largest one-day move was 25 points down, to 9.5% on 11 Jul 2025. $8.83K traded over the market's life.
24 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 13, 8:39 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 8 points · 5 Jul 2025 – 12 Jul 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Jul 2025 | 26.0% |
| 12 Jul 2025 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 3.64K |
| Anon694201 | Yes | 99.99 |
| Viewbot | Yes | 71.21 |
| BeefDerky | Yes | 66.13 |
| trender-144 | Yes | 50.92 |
| Kidde12 | Yes | 11.49 |
| Ivory Tide D95F | Yes | 9.68 |
| Neon Oracle 3E09 | Yes | 9.68 |
| JoE | Yes | 8.48 |
| Ivory Lynx 4A5A | Yes | 6.45 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on July 11, 2025. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-approval-rating-on-july-11
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
