Will Trump’s approval rating be <44.0% on July 18?

Resolved

No, settled Jul 19, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$45.2K

Resolved

Settled

Jul 19, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 19 Jul 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 94.7%. Yes opened at 26% on 12 Jul 2025. Before it settled, across the 8 daily closes on record from 12 Jul 2025 to 19 Jul 2025, the highest close was 83% on 18 Jul 2025 and the lowest 5.3% on 19 Jul 2025. Its largest one-day move was 78 points down, to 5.3% on 19 Jul 2025. $45.23K traded over the market's life.

39 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jul 20, 4:40 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 8 points, 12 Jul 2025 – 19 Jul 2025

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
12 Jul 2025	26.0%
19 Jul 2025	5.3%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	10.05K
Jayzillabooks	Yes	5.66K
BigMoneyMilkers	Yes	593.85
LetsAgreetoDisagree	Yes	558.63

10 of 39 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on July 18, 2025. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.