Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 11.5% on 12 Sep 2025. Before it settled, the high was 41.5% on 18 Nov 2025 and the low 0.3% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 15 points up, to 38% on 15 Nov 2025. $87.65K traded over the market's life.
71 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 4:30 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 113 points · 12 Sep 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Sep 2025 | 11.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 33.01K |
| PCMTest | Yes | 17.45K |
| LukeGamma | Yes | 1.5K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on December 31, 2025. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-approval-rating-on-december-31
| Yes |
| 735 |
| Outgoing-Demur | Yes | 613.35 |
| Nimble-Mobility | Yes | 499.98 |
| aargs | Yes | 481.55 |
| BennyS | Yes | 469.3 |
| wokerjoesleeper | Yes | 440.45 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 401 |
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