Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.2%. Yes opened at 14.5% on 12 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 113 daily closes on record from 12 Sep 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 83% on 30 Dec 2025 and the lowest 0.9% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 75 points down, to 8.5% on 31 Dec 2025. $103.89K traded over the market's life.
60 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 19, 3:27 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 113 points, 12 Sep 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Sep 2025 | 14.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 33.01K |
| TENETENET | Yes | 500 |
| Anthony-Dufresne | Yes | 436.14 |
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on December 31, 2025. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-approval-rating-on-december-31
| Yes |
| 372.99 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 332 |
| deezytrading | Yes | 230.46 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 204 |
| coypu | Yes | 197.48 |
| rated | Yes | 178.04 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 151 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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