Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 14% on 21 Feb 2025. Before it settled, across the 316 daily closes on record from 21 Feb 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 26% on 5 Mar 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 28 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 10 points down, to 16% on 6 Mar 2025. $228.94K traded over the market's life.
98 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:33 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 316 points, 21 Feb 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Feb 2025 | 14.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.3% |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-trump-withdraw-the-us-from-nato-in-2025
| vij | Yes | 877.38 |
| BADAW | Yes | 652.58 |
| zbogdajedes | Yes | 626.75 |
| fz2 | Yes | 500 |
| -Guapo-- | Yes | 496 |
| th997 | Yes | 357.02 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 354 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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