Analytics
Resolved No on 3 Dec 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 97%. Yes opened at 18.5% on 26 Oct 2024. Before it settled, across the 39 daily closes on record from 26 Oct 2024 to 3 Dec 2024, the highest close was 34.5% on 30 Oct 2024 and the lowest 1.6% on 18 Nov 2024. Its largest one-day move was 31 points down, to 2.5% on 7 Nov 2024. $132.89K traded over the market's life.
50 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 4, 7:59 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 39 points, 26 Oct 2024 – 3 Dec 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Oct 2024 | 18.5% |
| 3 Dec 2024 | 3.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| egger | Yes | 3.18K |
| Heyitsdade | Yes | 2.15K |
| BM-FRG | Yes | 830.19 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes” if Donald Trump wins the popular vote in Ohio in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by 12.0% or more when compared with the second place candidate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald Trump and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each candidate receives by the sum of all votes cast in this state for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. This market will resolve based off the official vote count once this state has certified the vote. If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-trump-win-ohio-by-12-points
| Yes |
| 721.36 |
| basilroll | Yes | 150 |
| NotBase | Yes | 100 |
| Crypto-the-Superdog | Yes | 86.67 |
| whathefman | Yes | 72.85 |
| Unlined-Simvastatin | Yes | 54.57 |
| DrugTvoi | Yes | 43.7 |
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