Analytics
Resolved Yes on 10 Nov 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.6%. Yes opened at 17% on 9 Oct 2024. Before it settled, across the 33 daily closes on record from 9 Oct 2024 to 10 Nov 2024, the highest close was 99.6% on 9 Nov 2024 and the lowest 17% on 9 Oct 2024. Its largest one-day move was 82 points up, to 98.8% on 7 Nov 2024. $1.62M traded over the market's life.
63 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 11, 4:12 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 33 points, 9 Oct 2024 – 10 Nov 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Oct 2024 | 17.0% |
| 10 Nov 2024 | 99.6% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 327.26K |
| Pushy-Learning | No | 77.22K |
| 666666 | No | 6.81K |
| Abelhadj | No | 4.29K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market considers the following states as "swing states": Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump wins exactly 7 swing states in the 2024 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources haven’t called the race in the listed states for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-swing-states-will-trump-win
| PlsPlsPls | No | 3.97K |
| tacas | No | 3.6K |
| autistic | No | 3.11K |
| nmn | No | 1.22K |
| Luxor | Yes | 1K |
| Hilibrand | No | 907.25 |
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