Will Trump visit China by May 15?

Resolved

Yes, settled May 13, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$15.1M

Resolved

Yes

Settled

May 13, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 13 May 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.9%. Yes opened at 73% on 22 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 22 daily closes on record from 22 Apr 2026 to 13 May 2026, the highest close was 99.9% on 13 May 2026 and the lowest 55% on 24 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 17 points down, to 55% on 24 Apr 2026. $15.07M traded over the market's life.

595 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of May 14, 5:25 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 22 points, 22 Apr 2026 – 13 May 2026

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
gibdolla	No	2M
bambamturtle	No	782K
b324u	No	754.26K
ligmaaaaa	No	300K

10 of 595 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits China by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.