Will Trump tweet 45-49 times October 18-25?

politicsResolved

No, settled Oct 24, 2024 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$23.8K

Resolved

Settled

Oct 24, 2024 UTC

Topic roomTrump and the White House

Where it stands

Resolved No on 24 Oct 2024.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99%. Yes opened at 11% on 19 Oct 2024. Before it settled, across the 6 daily closes on record from 19 Oct 2024 to 24 Oct 2024, the highest close was 26% on 23 Oct 2024 and the lowest 1% on 24 Oct 2024. Its largest one-day move was 25 points down, to 1% on 24 Oct 2024. $23.81K traded over the market's life.

8 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 25, 2:17 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 6 points, 19 Oct 2024 – 24 Oct 2024, chart shows 0%–40%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
19 Oct 2024	11.0%
24 Oct 2024	1.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	5.81K
qrpenc	Yes	1K
Cosmic Beacon 9183	Yes	2
tyl88	No	0.05

8 of 8 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

If Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts between 45 (inclusive) and 49 (inclusive) times on X between October 18, 2024, 12:00 PM ET and October 25, 2024, 12:00 PM ET this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts posts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1345967072006828033 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the ‘Post Counter’ figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.