Will Trump tweet 4+ times by next Friday?

Resolved

Yes, settled Dec 15, 2024 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$40.7K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Dec 15, 2024 UTC

Topic roomTrump and the White House

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 15 Dec 2024.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 93%. Yes opened at 58.5% on 14 Dec 2024. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 14 Dec 2024 to 15 Dec 2024, the highest close was 93% on 15 Dec 2024 and the lowest 58.5% on 14 Dec 2024. Its largest one-day move was 34 points up, to 93% on 15 Dec 2024. $40.7K traded over the market's life.

3 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Dec 16, 1:29 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 14 Dec 2024 – 15 Dec 2024

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
14 Dec 2024	58.5%
15 Dec 2024	93.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Lehi	No	3.76K
Emerald Falcon 810C	No	30.01
fomin-005	Yes	0.03

3 of 3 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

If Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts 4 or more times between December 13, 2024, 12:00 PM ET and December 20, 2024, 12:00 PM ET this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts posts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1345967072006828033 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the ‘Post Counter’ figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.