Analytics
Resolved No on 25 Aug 2023.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 74.5%. Yes opened at 22.5% on 4 Aug 2023. Before it settled, across the 22 daily closes on record from 4 Aug 2023 to 25 Aug 2023, the highest close was 32.5% on 20 Aug 2023 and the lowest 22.5% on 4 Aug 2023. Its largest one-day move was 6.5 points down, to 25.5% on 25 Aug 2023. $88.92K traded over the market's life.
12 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 26, 1:28 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 22 points, 4 Aug 2023 – 25 Aug 2023, chart shows 20%–35%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Aug 2023 | 22.5% |
| 25 Aug 2023 | 25.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| MelMan | Yes | 1.53K |
| Bubbaho | Yes | 1.29K |
| -123 | No | 1.28K |
| leoleoleoleo | Yes | 199.14 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump is smiling in his front-view mugshot. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This mugshot will resolve based on the first front-view mugshot released after this market's inception; if no mugshot is released by September 30, 2023 ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and/or official information from law enforcement. Determination as to whether Trump is smiling in his mugshot will be made by this market's decentralized resolver, UMA.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-trump-smile-in-his-mugshot-1
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