Analytics
Resolved No on 1 May 2023.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 50% on 23 Mar 2023. Before it settled, across the 37 daily closes on record from 23 Mar 2023 to 1 May 2023 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 50% on 23 Mar 2023 and the lowest 0.5% on 28 Apr 2023. Its largest one-day move was 35 points down, to 2% on 5 Apr 2023. $135.25K traded over the market's life.
6 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 1, 7:25 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 51 points, 23 Mar 2023 – 17 May 2023
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Mar 2023 | 50.0% |
| 17 May 2023 | 50.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Optimistic-Bit | Yes | 1.95K |
| Violet Falcon F21A | Yes | 1.01K |
| HarvardInsider | Yes | 862.58 |
| Embellished-Peen | Yes | 112.55 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump is smiling in his front-view mugshot. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This mugshot will resolve based on the first front-view mugshot released after this market's inception; if no mugshot is released by April 30, 2023 ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and/or official information from law enforcement. Determination as to whether Mr. Trump is smiling in his mugshot will be made by this market's decentralized resolver, UMA.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-trump-smile-in-his-mugshot
| DefiDigs | Yes | 20.6 |
| billl | No | 1.01 |
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