Analytics
Resolved No on 20 Jan 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 83.5%. Yes opened at 42.5% on 16 Nov 2024. Before it settled, the high was 42.5% on 16 Nov 2024 and the low 11.7% on 21 Dec 2024. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 23.4% on 17 Nov 2024. $161.73K traded over the market's life.
47 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 21, 8:37 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 66 points · 16 Nov 2024 – 20 Jan 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 16 Nov 2024 | 42.5% |
| 20 Jan 2025 | 16.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
Donald Trump's inaugural address is scheduled to take place on January 20, 2025. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "trans" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Compound words will count as long as "trans" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a person whose gender identity does not correspond with the sex registered for them at birth (e.g. "transgender" counts). If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond February 3, 2025 ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the video of the speech.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-trump-say-during-inauguration-speech
| g128 | Yes | 220 |
| BusterRex | Yes | 205.33 |
| Alekzyzz | Yes | 171.96 |
| RaduP. | Yes | 151.14 |
| Zaksans | Yes | 104.6 |
| god98754 | Yes | 78.86 |
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