Will Trump say "Trans" during Georgia speech on Oct 15?

Resolved

Yes, settled Oct 16, 2024 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$82.0K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Oct 16, 2024 UTC

Topic roomTrump and the White House

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 16 Oct 2024.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 83.5%. Yes opened at 70% on 15 Oct 2024. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 15 Oct 2024 to 16 Oct 2024, the highest close was 83.5% on 16 Oct 2024 and the lowest 70% on 15 Oct 2024. Its largest one-day move was 14 points up, to 83.5% on 16 Oct 2024. $82.04K traded over the market's life.

4 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 17, 4:22 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 15 Oct 2024 – 16 Oct 2024, chart shows 65%–90%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
15 Oct 2024	70.0%
16 Oct 2024	83.5%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
g...	No	17K
ryders	No	788.33
Shiller	No	58.82
SamWise406	No	21.24

4 of 4 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

Donald Trump has scheduled an event on October 15 in Atlanta, Georgia (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-deliver-remarks-in-atlanta-georgia). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Trans" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Compound words will count as long as "trans" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a person whose gender identity does not correspond with the sex registered for them at birth (e.g. "transgender" counts). If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 15, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the video of the event.