Analytics
Resolved No on 3 May 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 70.5%. Yes opened at 46% on 26 Apr 2025. Before it settled, across the 8 daily closes on record from 26 Apr 2025 to 3 May 2025, the highest close was 66% on 29 Apr 2025 and the lowest 16.5% on 1 May 2025. Its largest one-day move was 26 points down, to 40% on 30 Apr 2025. $2.1K traded over the market's life.
3 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 4, 8:20 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 8 points, 26 Apr 2025 – 3 May 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Apr 2025 | 46.0% |
| 3 May 2025 | 29.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Kestrel E87A | Yes | 1K |
| ex3000 | Yes | 15.25 |
| dumdumdaaam | No | 0.06 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between April 26, 00:00 AM ET and May 2, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-trump-say-this-week-968
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
