Analytics
Resolved Yes on 5 Mar 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 64%. Yes opened at 42% on 28 Feb 2025. Before it settled, across the 6 daily closes on record from 28 Feb 2025 to 5 Mar 2025, the highest close was 64% on 5 Mar 2025 and the lowest 42% on 28 Feb 2025. Its largest one-day move was 15 points up, to 57.5% on 1 Mar 2025. $65.91K traded over the market's life.
9 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 6, 6:04 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 6 points, 28 Feb 2025 – 5 Mar 2025, chart shows 30%–70%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Feb 2025 | 42.0% |
| 5 Mar 2025 | 64.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| DavidG997 | No | 1K |
| KimbalMusk | No | 492 |
| uyttawru297 | No | 46.17 |
| oyze | No | 45 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver the 2025 State of the Union address on March 4, 2025, 9:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the 2025 State of the Union address. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Compound words will not count. If the 2025 State of the Union does not happen by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If Trump ceases to be President of the United States for any length of time by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the press briefing.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-trump-say-during-state-of-the-union
| tuayerhe288 | No | 29 |
| irffoured | No | 26 |
| willitron77 | Yes | 18.18 |
| TimeTraveler | No | 0.04 |
| Xerath | Yes | 0.02 |
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